Hindsight Bias

   

Definition: Hindsight Bias is people's tendency to falsely assume that they can accurately predict an event's outcome (after the event has occurred) without knowing about it beforehand. Because of Hindsight Bias, people tend to assume that they can correctly predict either positive or negative consequences of an event as if saying "I knew it."
If the bias is reasonable and does not lead to overconfidence, it can increase an individual's level of performance and confidence. But Hindsight Bias does interfere with our ability to learn from experiences. If a person believes she knew something was bound to happen, she won't stop to think about the causes of the event and is unable to learn.


   

   

More on hindsight bias.
More on learning: Learning From Mistakes.



   

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