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Black Swan Theory


Definition: Black Swan Theory is a decision making concept by Nassim Taleb using a black swan as a metaphor to indicate low-probability, high-impact events that are impossible to forecast or predict with heuristics.
Black Swans were presumed not to exist for a long time and the term was used as a statement of impossibility.
In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Taleb says we currently live in a world of opacity, where knowledge is overestimated and chance and uncertainty are underestimated. We don't know what we don't know!


Learn more about Black Swan Theory.

More on individual decision making: Anchoring Bias, Bayesian Theory, Bounded Rationality, Cognitive Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, more on individual decision making...

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