Black Swan Theory

   

Definition: Black Swan Theory is a decision making concept by Nassim Taleb using a black swan as a metaphor to indicate low-probability, high-impact events that are impossible to forecast or predict with heuristics.
Black Swans were presumed not to exist for a long time and the term was used as a statement of impossibility.
In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Taleb says we currently live in a world of opacity, where knowledge is overestimated and chance and uncertainty are underestimated. We don't know what we don't know!


   
   

More on individual decision making: Anchoring Bias, Bayesian Theory, Bounded Rationality, Cognitive Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, more...



   

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